Stalking the black swan research and decision making in a world of extreme volatility /
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| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
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New York :
Columbia Business School Publishing,
c2010.
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| Online Access: | http://site.ebrary.com/lib/ucy/Doc?id=10419632 |
Table of Contents:
- Forecasting in extreme environments
- Thinking in probabilities
- The balance between overconfidence and underconfidence, and the special risk of complex modeling
- Fighting information overload with strategy
- Making decisions in real time: how to react to new information without falling victim to cognitive dissonance
- Mitigating information asymmetry
- Mapping from simple ideas to complex analysis
- The power and pitfalls of Monte Carlo modeling
- Judgment.